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Analysis on synoptic causes of a severe convective rainstorm in Yunnan
MA Zhimin, WANG Jiang, LIAN Yu, ZHANG Wancheng, NIU Fabao, YANG Suyu
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (4): 629-638.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-04-0629
Abstract214)   HTML20)    PDF(pc) (29336KB)(718)       Save

In order to improve the accuracy of rainstorm forecast and reduce the disaster losses caused by rainstorm, based on the ground conventional meteorological observation data, TBB (Black Body Temperature) data from satellite images and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the synoptic causes of a strong convective rainstorm in Yunnan in August 2017 were analyzed. The results show that the eastward movement of 500 hPa trough, the southward movement of 700 hPa shear line and the westward movement of surface cold front are the synoptic background of this precipitation process. The mesoscale convective systems (MCS) on the Meso-α and Meso-β scales directly trigger the convective rainstorm. The heavy rainfall generally happens in the region with a high gradient of TBB. The MCS is closely related to 700 hPa wind shear line where is located to the east of Mid-Yunnan. The MCS is elliptically-shaped, developing along the neighboring and backside of the wind shear line. After the wind shear line getting close and cross over the Ailao Mountain, the MCSs distribute in a belt from northwest to southeast, and develop in front of the wind shear line. The wind shear line moves fast during the daytime before crossing over the Ailao Mountain, mainly producing thunderstorm weather while it moves slowly at nighttime, and the rainfall is strong. The forecast of strong convective rainstorm should focus on the large value area of water vapor flux convergence and the area where the temperature difference between 800 hPa and 500 hPa is greater than 20 ℃. During the heavy rainfall, the whole layer atmosphere is ascending, and the heavy rainfall area maintains the dynamic pumping mechanism of convergence at lower level and divergence at middle and upper levels.

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Precipitation Forecast of Wudongde Hydropower Station Based on SVM Model Optimized by Multiple Algorithms
SUN Junkui, WANG Jiang, KANG Daojun, YAN Liping, ZHOU Xi
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2019, 37 (4): 670-675.  
Abstract244)      PDF(pc) (723KB)(1417)       Save
基于粒子群优化(PSO)算法和遗传算法(GA)对支持向量机(SVM)的核函数及主要参数进行训练优化,分别建立PSO算法、GA的支持向量机模型(PSO_SVM、GA_SVM)。选用ECMWF及T639数值预报产品资料和乌东德水电站降水资料,普查最优预报因子,构建包含各种类型降水过程的训练样本和测试样本。比较分析SVM模型RBF和Sigmoid核函数优劣。尝试先分段寻找局部最优,再选择全局最优的参数优化方法。通过增大训练样本集、降低交叉验证准确率、迭代次数截断和控制惩罚系数范围的方法,提高模型的稳定性和泛化能力,防止过拟合和收敛缓慢现象。利用测试样本对SVM、PSO_SVM和GA_SVM三种方案进行对比检验,优化的GA_SVM预报效果较好且稳定。经2018年试报表明,GA_SVM逐3 h累计降水量预报TS评分在50%以上,漏报率在15%以下,与ECMWF和T639比较,该模型TS评分提高1.4%。

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 Caused by Central Asian Vortex in the West of South Xinjiang
LI Ruqi, LI Jiangang, TANG Ye, LI Anbei, WANG Jiang
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-02-0297
Cause of a Rare Rainstorm in the West of Southern Xinjiang in 2013
WANG Jiang1,LI Ruqi1,HUANG Yan2,ZHAO Keming1,LI Jiangang1,ZHOU Yaman1
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-06-0910
Change Characteristics of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Northern Xinjiang
WANG Jian, Lü Xin, WANG Jiangli
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2015, 33 (1): 63-69.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-01-0063
Abstract1207)      PDF(pc) (2263KB)(2038)       Save

The temporal - spatial variation of reference crop evapotranspiration in northern Xinjiang was analyzed based on daily observations from 22 meteorological stations in the northern Xinjiang during 1962 - 2010 in this paper. Firstly,the reference crop evapotranspiration ( ET0)in northern Xinjiang from 1962 to 2010 was calculated with the Penman - Monteith formula,then the temporal -spatial variations of ET0 were analyzed by using the Mann - Kedall test and spatial analysis of ArcGIS. The results show that ET0 in the entire study area had an abrupt change in 1983 and presented a downward trend,which was mainly affected by relative humidity and wind speed there. The reference crop evapotranspiration gradually increased from the northeast and southwest to the center of the northern Xinjiang, and it was slightly higher in the southeast and the west region,which presented an obvious regional difference. The reference crop evapotranspiration from April to October significantly affected the annual distribution of reference evapotranspiration. The results should be useful for identifying an appropriate irrigation system that can be used in the region under environment conditions affected by global warming.

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Climate Characteristics of Hail Disasters in Aletai of Xinjiang
WANG Jiangang,HE Qing,XU Jianchun,ZHUANG Xiaocui,LIANG Xiaozhong
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2014)-01-0114